_{In this solo episode, Craig Dowden explores a global study on decision-making. Learn how to view change positively, tolerate uncertainty, and use grounded optimism to lead effectively when the path isn't clear.}

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TL;DR

Q: What is the main cause of decision paralysis in leaders?

A: Decision paralysis often stems from discomfort with uncertainty and a fear of making mistakes without perfect information.

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Q: How can I help my team become more comfortable with failure?

A: Destigmatize failure by reviewing mistakes openly as learning opportunities and celebrating the action taken rather than just the outcome.

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Q: What is the difference between blind optimism and grounded optimism?

A: Blind optimism ignores risks, while grounded optimism anticipates positive outcomes while remaining realistic about potential challenges.

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Q: Why is treating decisions as experiments helpful?

A: Framing decisions as experiments reduces fear by focusing on data gathering and hypothesis testing rather than permanent consequences.

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Q: Can decision-making skills be learned?

A: Yes, traits like tolerance for uncertainty and optimism are learnable skills that improve with intentional practice over time.

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Understanding Leadership Choices in Volatile Markets

42% of business leaders admit they put off thinking about decisions because it feels uncomfortable. When the environment feels volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA), our natural stress response often kicks in. We freeze, wait for more data and hope the problem solves itself. But inaction is still a choice, and it often leads to missed opportunities that competitors seize instead.

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I recently reviewed a significant study published in MIT Sloan Management Review that looked at how people approach decisions when the outcome isn't guaranteed. Researchers partnered with HSBC to survey nearly 18,000 people across 12 markets. They wanted to know what separated the leaders who excelled from those who struggled. The findings offer a clear roadmap for anyone looking to improve their judgment when the stakes are high.

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This matters because the pace of change isn't slowing down. Whether you are leading a small team or a multinational corporation, ambiguity is the new normal. Understanding how to navigate it without losing your confidence or your team's trust is essential for long-term success.

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The Power of Reframing Change and Challenges

The first trait found in effective decision-makers is their ability to view change positively. During the study, 70% of business leaders claimed they generally view change in a positive light. However, when researchers probed deeper, almost half admitted they actually see unexpected changes as something to be managed or coped with. Another 13% said they would prefer to avoid changes altogether.

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This gap between what we say and what we do is critical. If you subconsciously view change as a threat, your brain will prioritize safety over growth and risk hesitation. The leaders who performed best trained themselves to see change as a natural part of progress. They welcomed it as a chance to improve their position.

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The second trait builds on this by framing unexpected challenges as opportunities rather than problems. When a crisis hits, the immediate reaction for many is to ask, "How do we fix this?" The better question is, "What does this make possible?" Nearly three-quarters of respondents agreed that uncertainty brings possibilities. This aligns with growth mindset principles where obstacles are viewed as data points for learning rather than stop signs.

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Shift your language: Replace "problem" with "challenge" or "situation" in team meetings.
Ask opportunity questions: Prompt your team to list three potential benefits of a difficult change.
Normalize uncertainty: Acknowledge that not knowing the outcome is part of the process, not a failure of planning.

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Building Tolerance for Uncertainty and Failure

The third trait involves training yourself to be tolerant of uncertainty. About a third of the business leaders surveyed said they felt paralyzed by uncertainty when it was time to act. This paralysis comes from the discomfort of not having all the answers. Effective decision-makers accept that they will never have 100% of the information. They act without waiting for perfect clarity.

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One powerful way to do this is by treating decisions as experiments. When you frame a choice as an experiment, you gather data and test a hypothesis. If the results aren't what you expected, you adjust. This removes the fear factor. One business leader in the study noted that their team stopped using gambling language like "betting on" an idea. Instead, they discussed hypotheses and probabilities. This grounded the conversation and reduced anxiety.

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The fourth trait is being fluent in failure. We often have a dysfunctional relationship with mistakes and end up hiding them. Yet 83% of people surveyed agreed that past mistakes made them better decision-makers. You cannot learn to make better decisions without making some wrong ones along the way. Destigmatizing failure allows your team to take educated bets.

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Conduct pilot projects: Test ideas on a small scale before full rollout.
Review mistakes openly: Hold retrospectives focused on learning rather than blame.
Celebrate action: Recognize team members who take initiative even when outcomes are unsure.

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Cultivating Grounded Optimism for Long-term Success

The final trait was identified as the most important of the five. Effective decision-makers possess a genuine belief that even if things don't go as planned, the eventual outcome will be positive. This is not blind optimism. It is grounded optimism. They anticipate that things will turn out well, but they remain realistic about the risks involved.

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Seventy percent of respondents said their mindset enabled them to make the most of opportunities afforded to them. When you are grounded in optimism, you approach uncertainty with curiosity rather than dread. You trust your ability to handle whatever comes next. This confidence is contagious and when a leader shows calm assurance during a crisis, the team feels safer to engage and contribute.

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All of these skills are learnable. You can grow your capacity to handle ambiguity with intentional practice. Start by checking your own orientation toward change. Are you viewing it as a threat or an opportunity? Are you waiting for perfect information before acting? The world moves fast so putting yourself in the best position for success means building the psychological muscle to move forward even when the path is foggy.

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"Effective decision makers possess a genuine belief that even if things don't go as planned, the eventual outcome will be positive." _{-- Craig Dowden}

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Moving Forward with Confidence

Leadership in uncertain times requires a shift in how you view risk and failure. It is not about eliminating uncertainty but learning to operate within it. By viewing change positively, framing challenges as opportunities, and tolerating ambiguity, you build resilience. Adding a grounded sense of optimism ensures you keep moving toward your goals even when obstacles appear.

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The cost of inaction is often higher than the cost of a wrong decision. A wrong decision gives you data. Inaction gives you nothing but regret over missed opportunities. Encourage your team to make educated bets. Create a culture where experiments are welcomed and failures are treated as learning moments. This approach builds a stronger, more agile organization.

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You have the ability to grow these skills. Pick one decision this week that you have been putting off, treat it as an experiment and gather data. Then adjust as needed and over time, this practice becomes second nature. You will find yourself making higher-quality decisions with less stress.

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Ready to take Making High-Quality Decisions to the next level?

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To get practical tools and actionable tips that will jumpstart your journey, download the Making High-Quality Decisions Kick Starter Booklet here.
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And if you’re looking to elevate your entire C-Suite leadership team, learn how Craig Dowden can help your leaders perform at their highest-level visit https://www.craigdowden.com/executive-mastermind
For a deeper dive, listen to the full-length episode of the Do Good to Lead Well podcast featuring Craig Dowden:
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Did you like this article on Making High-Quality Decisions? Does it help you become a better leader? Then check out these articles to help hone those skills even further:

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